Can the growth plan actually work?
Start with the ending annual revenue run rate you want. Then separate what must come from retention, expansion, pricing and new customers—and test whether demand, sales capacity and acquisition economics can support it.
Ending run rate is not the same thing as revenue recognized during the year.
The model now treats them separately. It also stops assuming new customers fill the entire growth gap.
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How much does the plan move when the assumptions move?
The downside and upside cases use the sensitivity percentage you entered. This is not a forecast distribution; it is a pressure test.
| Scenario | New-business run rate | Customers | Leads | Acquisition spend | CAC payback | Added sellers |
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Volume is only useful if the economics hold.
What this model assumes.
The target is an ending annual run rate. Existing-base revenue is approximated with a linear run-rate bridge. New-customer revenue is recognized from a month-by-month close schedule constrained by sales-cycle timing, current seller capacity, hiring delay and rep ramp.
Current sellers are assumed to generate modeled closes only after the entered sales-cycle lag; the model does not assume a pre-existing pipeline. Added sellers begin after the hiring delay, then contribute according to the entered ramp and sales-cycle timing.
CAC payback uses annual revenue per new customer × contribution margin. “Steady-state annual contribution less acquisition spend” is not first-year recognized contribution; it compares the ending annual contribution base with the one-time acquisition spend required to create it. Financing costs, working capital, implementation cost and post-acquisition churn are not modeled.
The model tells you what the plan requires if your assumptions are true. It does not predict whether the market will produce the required demand.